I’ve been thinking about doom and gloom on a macroeconomic scale. Enjoy!

I’ve had these weird premonitions a few times. One was in 2023 right before we bought Colophon. I knew something big was on the horizon, I just didn’t know what. I could feel the course of inputs and actions turning into positive outcomes beyond my control.

I’ve also had plenty of these premonitions that didn’t result into anything, of course. Or maybe the result wasn’t striking enough to remember and attribute. Maybe the anticipatory feeling itself can lead to manifesting positive outcomes. Or maybe all of premonitions are just BS and attribution bias, like a guy with a ‘system’ at a horse track.

Maybe it’s nothing, but I’m starting to get that feeling again for the first time in a while. This time, on a macroeconomic scale instead of personal to myself.

The different forces of the world bash into each other over and over. The US economy, interest rates, the war in Iran, markets in west Africa, the political climate in eastern Europe, on and on and on. Nothing is compartmentalized. The butterfly effect is real.

The resulting outcomes impact the markets, the political climate, and our livelihood. It’s impossible to predict, or even explain in reverse, as some of the smartest people in the world often try to do in their post-mortems of certain events.

Here are some simple observations of the current complex forces bashing into each other like tectonic plates on a multi-dimensional fault line:

I haven’t lived that long and we’ve certainly never had this much information at our fingertips. So maybe things have always been this dynamic, and we just didn’t know about it or weren’t alive to really understand and experience the full context.

But something feels like it’s going to give soon.

Does the market just keep going up like it always seems to do and wages are able to catch up to pricing? Or is a major correction from this K-shaped economy imminent?

I’m not sure why, but as an optimist, I am preparing for the latter. Always down to be wrong.

(This is not financial advice)

At the time I first started writing this edition, playoff baseball starts tomorrow. By the time this releases, I will either be completely digging it (Braves are on a roll) or literally loathing it (Braves lost to the Phillies and I hate everything). Let’s hope I was completely wrong a few weeks ago, because I’ve fully convinced myself we’re a contender.

Also, at time of writing, my sweet left-handed soft-kneed prince Michael Penix Jr. tossed a gem in Green Bay and is suiting up tonight (Monday Night Football) in primetime again. I am sure that by the time this sends, everything is looking up and we’re now for sure 100% going to be Super Bowl champions.

October is so gd toxic for me.

This is a Sarah special. Nothing like cinnamon in the coffee in the morning. Mainline those fall spices from the get-go to start your day. Love it.

And if you’re a real cowboy, cayenne pepper in the coffee is evidently good for you.

Not exactly the soundtrack to my week - I just want you to share in the misery of these catchy tunes getting locked into your brain for the foreseeable future

I learned everything I know about personal finance is from J. Dash.

Always make a little bit of money and pay your bills before you WOP WOP WOP WOP.

Sincerely,

Zander Barth